As of late last night, the Hong Kong Observatory reported that a low-pressure system in the northwestern Pacific, east of the Philippines, has developed into a tropical depression. The depression was located approximately 1,630 kilometers east-southeast of Manila and is moving northwest at around 30 kilometers per hour towards the Luzon Strait.
Forecast models indicate that this tropical cyclone could reach a point about 1,000 kilometers east of Hong Kong by 8 PM on Friday, November 8. At that time, it is expected to strengthen into a typhoon; however, it is still uncertain whether it will enter the 800-kilometer warning zone surrounding Hong Kong.
Meteorological agencies from Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan have confirmed the Observatory's predictions, suggesting that the cyclone will remain at least 1,000 kilometers away from Hong Kong for the foreseeable future. Nonetheless, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) predicts that the cyclone may stall in the Luzon Strait before weakening and dissipating early next week.
AI-driven weather models, including the "Pangu" model, indicate a potential interaction with another tropical cyclone, known as the Fujiwhara effect, which could prevent it from entering the South China Sea. Another model, "Fuxi," suggests that while the cyclone may come close to the 800-kilometer warning radius, it is likely to weaken due to the prevailing northeast monsoon and dissipate over the weekend.
In the meantime, Hong Kong is experiencing cloudy weather influenced by the northeast monsoon, with occasional sunny intervals. Local forecasts predict a few rain patches in the mornings and evenings, with daytime temperatures ranging from a minimum of 25 degrees Celsius to a maximum of around 29 degrees.
熱帶低氣壓預計將增強為颱風，接近香港東面約1000公里
根據香港天文台昨晚的報告，位於西北太平洋的低壓系統已發展為熱帶低氣壓，該系統位於馬尼拉東南約1630公里，正以每小時約30公里的速度向西北方向移動，朝向呂宋海峽。
預報模型顯示，這場熱帶氣旋可能在11月8日（星期五）晚上8時達到距離香港約1000公里的地點。屆時預計會增強為颱風，但仍不確定它會否進入圍繞香港的800公里警告區域。
來自日本、韓國和台灣的氣象機構已確認天文台的預測，表明這場氣旋在可預見的未來將至少保持在距離香港1000公里以外。然而，歐洲中期天氣預報中心（ECMWF）預測，這場氣旋可能會在呂宋海峽停滯，然後在下週初減弱和消散。
包括“彭古”模型在內的人工智能驅動氣象模型顯示，這場低氣壓可能會與另一場熱帶氣旋互動，這種現象稱為藤原效應，可能會阻止它進入南中國海。另一個模型“伏羲”則指出，雖然氣旋可能會接近800公里的警告半徑，但由於盛行的東北季風，氣旋可能會減弱並在週末消散。
與此同時，香港正受到東北季風影響，天氣多雲，偶爾有陽光。當地預報顯示早晚會有幾陣雨，白天氣溫範圍從最低25度 Celsius到最高約29度。
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