On September 17, 2024, the Hong Kong Observatory issued a cautionary notice regarding the formation of a tropical cyclone near Luzon. This development poses potential weather threats to the region, coinciding with the prevailing northeast monsoon affecting the coastal areas of Guangdong.
Recent forecasts from the Observatory indicate that a low-pressure area near Luzon is gradually intensifying, with predictions suggesting a westward movement toward Hainan Island. However, the cyclone's trajectory remains uncertain due to the influence of the monsoon.
The Japan Meteorological Agency has upgraded the low-pressure system east of Luzon to a tropical depression. It is expected to cross Luzon shortly, entering the northern part of the South China Sea and moving toward Hainan Island by mid-week.
Public interest in the weather situation is rising, as the Observatory considers issuing a "Strong Monsoon Signal" if the northeast monsoon intensifies. This signal would indicate wind speeds comparable to a No. 3 tropical cyclone warning, although the likelihood of issuing a tropical cyclone warning remains low unless the system significantly strengthens or alters its path closer to Guangdong’s western coast.
The Observatory’s Scientific Director emphasized the unpredictable nature of current conditions in a recent "Weather Musings" column. Satellite imagery shows increasingly organized convective clouds near Luzon, suggesting that a tropical cyclone may be forming.
As the system is expected to move into the South China Sea soon, its development into a tropical cyclone appears increasingly likely. The path it takes will be heavily influenced by the northeast monsoon, with a higher chance of moving toward northern Vietnam or the northern Gulf of Hainan.
This week, weather conditions are a significant concern for many residents, and the Observatory is prepared to issue the Strong Monsoon Signal mid-week, depending on the strength of the monsoon and local wind changes. Some models indicate that the system may move slowly across the South China Sea, potentially strengthening and shifting northward toward Hainan Island later this week.
熱帶氣旋在南中國海形成：可能發出強風季信號
2024年9月17日，香港天文台發出警告，指在呂宋附近形成的熱帶氣旋可能對該地區造成天氣威脅，這一發展與影響廣東沿海地區的東北季風相吻合。
天文台最近的預測顯示，呂宋附近的低壓區正在逐漸增強，預計將向海南島西移。然而，由於季風的影響，氣旋的走向仍然不確定。
日本氣象廳已將呂宋東部的低壓系統升級為熱帶低氣壓。預計該系統將很快穿過呂宋，進入南中國海北部，並於本週中期向海南島移動。
公眾對天氣情況的關注上升，因為天文台考慮在東北季風增強的情況下發出「強風季信號」。該信號將表示風速相當於3號熱帶氣旋警告，儘管除非系統顯著增強或改變路徑接近廣東西部，否則發出熱帶氣旋警告的可能性仍然較低。
天文台的科學主任在最近的「天氣隨想」專欄中強調了當前條件的不確定性。衛星圖像顯示，呂宋附近的對流雲系越來越有組織，這表明可能正在形成熱帶氣旋。
隨著該系統預計將很快進入南中國海，其發展為熱帶氣旋的可能性越來越高。其路徑將受到東北季風的強烈影響，並有較大機會朝向越南北部或海南島北部的海灣移動。
本週，天氣條件對許多居民而言是一個重大關注點，天文台準備在本週中期發出強風季信號，具體取決於季風的強度和當地風的變化。一些模型顯示，該系統可能會緩慢穿過南中國海，並在本週晚些時候向北移動至海南島，可能會增強。
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